Mobile Predictions for 2012 – Part 3

Nathan Kerry, VP Strategic Accounts

LOS ANGELES, CA January 16, 2012-

It’s that time of year again: the time to take stock, look back at the year that has passed and look ahead to the New Year and all of the promise that it holds. What does 2012 have in store for the mobile world? No one knows for sure, but in this series of posts, the experts at July Systems identify the top mobile trends and make predictions about what will take place in the ecosystem surrounding tablets and smartphones over the course of the year to come – and beyond.

Prediction #3: Smartphones and tablets based on Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android operating systems will dominate market share in 2012 as consumer adoption of mobile devices explodes.

In 2012, both smartphones and tablets based on Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android operating systems will continue to dominate the mobile device marketplace. Mobile devices based on those two platforms will continue to matter to most to brands, retailers and publishers.

A Gartner report on worldwide smartphone sales to end users found that the Android OS led the pack in the third quarter of 2011, with 52.5% market share, more than doubling its market share from the third quarter of 2010. That was well ahead of Nokia’s Symbian, which placed second at 16.9% market share. Despite continued traction in regions such as Eastern Europe and Asia Pacific, the Finnish company has been unable to find success in the North American market. Apple’s iOS place third with 15% market share, followed by Research In Motion with 11%. Microsoft had a mere 1.5% market share in 3Q 2011.

I n 2012, Apple will debut new versions of its flagship iPhone and iPad devices, while a wide range of devices based on the Android OS will debut from multiple manufacturers, including Samsung, Motorola, HTC, Kyocera, LG, Pantech and Sony Ericsson.

Despite improvements, RIM’s BlackBerry will continue to struggle as its weaknesses in mobile web browsing and native apps outweigh its strengths: mobile email and BlackBerry Messenger (BBM).

The wildcard is Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7.5/8. The coming year will be a real test of the Nokia/Microsoft marriage. The mobile ecosystem wants this marriage to be successful, and our fingers are crossed. However, while the early devices based on the latest versions of this operating system are strong contenders, these partners arrived late to the race. 2012 may be a make-or-break year for the partnership.

Tablet adoption will be even higher in 2012. Tablets have found users beyond the business class, and they are fast becoming the media-consumption device of choice for everyone from teens, college students and young professionals to parents and their kids. In addition to their entertainment value, tablets are becoming an invaluable educational tool as well.

In 2012, most everything will be shifting to cloud. And that will make PCs with higher processing power less relevant. Tablets will eat significant portion of PC pie. Low cost of tablets would also drive usage in developing world.

At July Systems, we don’t play favorites. We support every major mobile platform. Our views are based on the demand that we see, and our clients are our data points. From our perspective, iOS and Android will continue to dominate in 2012, with the interest in Windows Phone 7 building over the course of the year.

Tablets are becoming both diverse and fragmented, but consumer adoption of tablets will continue to increase in the coming year, with the iOS-based iPad garnering the majority of marketing budgets.